Blog | CB Investment Management

“Recovery”? Fake And Failing.

No matter how much the media, Federal Reserve, or academic economists tell us about the current economic “recovery”, it still rings hollow on main street. On closer examination it doesn’t even stack up.

Economics can be so interpretive that plausible arguments can be made for almost anything, but after nearly 7 years of “recovery”, Trillions added to both public debt and central bank balance sheets, and interest rates around the world near zero or even negative, the question is why aren’t most people feeling it?

The longer this goes on the more obvious it is that the media spin and the official “experts” are just plain wrong. At best the GDP statistics tell us that we have the weakest recovery since the current monetary system started in the early 1970s. This is even with all the unprecedented “stimulus”.


Even this weak growth is flattered by spending from trillions generated from debt, money printing, inflated asset prices, and the lowest interest rates in centuries. Imagine where the economy would be without all the emergency room measures that were supposed to be temporary but have now become permanent.

Take away the spin and examine for yourself whether these 10 charts reflect anything remotely close to what you yourself would call a recovery.

What’s next? The acid test of any durable recovery is whether household spending can durably sustain a rise in spending. Just two charts show that this is highly unlikely. Indeed the opposite seems to be what is happening right now.

The link below shows that in the current “recovery” the correlation between spending and wages has never been higher. Most people do not have savings which could benefit from higher asset prices, and with minimal savings and declining real income, it is no surprise that spending has become ever more dependent solely on income.

This means that the chart at the top of this note will most likely be the dominant factor in determining the outcome. If most of the job growth is part time or near minimum wage in a labor market with the lowest participation rate for four decades, how much difference will stronger job gains really make?

Decide for yourself from the data presented here. The “experts” look like they have it all wrong. What if that is because they don’t really have a strategy for that outcome?


Best Practice is a matter of your Best Interest.

Education and a Commitment to Informed Consent is an Obligation.

Chris Belchamber is an IRMAA Certified Planner

Medicare’s IRMAA impacts every retirement plan. Learning how to mitigate it is available via IRMAA Certified Planners designation.

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